• Last week, Morgan Stanley released a timeline of US coronavirus outbreaks from now until next June. 
  • It said new cases would peak in early May, with a slow decline throughout the summer. People will return to work in waves; the first, in June; the second, by August.
  • Even as widespread testing is introduced and health systems recover, nothing prevents a second wave of outbreaks — and likely shutdowns — this winter, according to the timeline. 
  • I asked Matthew Harrison, a managing director of Morgan Stanley's biotechnology research, about the report.
  • He offered five reasons why he thinks the US will move in and out of lockdowns until March of next year. 
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Last week, Morgan Stanley released a timeline of the coronavirus outbreak, highlighting how the bank's biotech researchers expect the novel coronavirus to affect the US from now until June of 2021.

It said new cases will peak early next month, with a slow decline throughout the summer. The first wave of workers will return to work in June, followed by a second group before August. 

But widespread antibody and diagnostic testing, recovered hospitals, and a potential vaccine for healthcare workers — other events on the firm's timeline — won't prevent a second wave of outbreaks this winter, according to Morgan Stanley. 

The coronavirus' return means we'll probably have to shutter significant parts of the US again to contain its spread.

The only thing that makes the coronavirus and lockdowns go away for good is a broadly available vaccine. But that may not be available until March of 2021, the report said. 

I talked with Matthew Harrison, a managing director of Morgan Stanley's biotechnology research, about the timeline. Here's why he said the US will move in and out of lockdowns over the next 11 months. 

Read more: Morgan Stanley just released a comprehensive timeline of the coronavirus outbreak. Here's when analysts think the US will increase testing, get a vaccine, and finally return to work.

People shouldn't expect the virus to just go away

"While we've gone through a very acute situation right now with a major peak, people shouldn't expect the virus to just go away," Harrison said in the interview. 

Similar to experiences in Asian countries, the US should expect to see new cases after social distancing measures are relaxed, he continued.

A second wave of outbreaks starts in November in Morgan Stanley's timeline, reaching up to 20,000 new cases per day. 

Dealing with the second wave of the outbreak will require "good surveillance capability to identify those new cases that come up, effectively isolate them, and stop them from turning into major hotspots," Harrison said. 

"And when there are new outbreaks, governments may need to revert to extreme social distancing measures in certain areas," he said.

Until there is a vaccine, we won't return to 'normal'

People should expect to see lockdowns come on and off again as government officials contain regional outbreaks, according to Harrison. 

"The way people interact with each other or how they might need to interact with stores may be different. So for example, we've said that you shouldn't expect large gatherings, like big sports gatherings, to happen," he said. "Or if they do, they're going to happen with limited capacity in the stadium."

Some economists at the firm say the US won't return to pre-pandemic levels of activity until the fourth quarter of 2021, according to Harrison.

"Until there is a vaccine, people shouldn't expect to revert to normal, you know, in quotation marks, however you want to define 'normal,'" he said. 

Different states relax lockdowns at different times

There's a risk that, as one state lifts restrictions, it could reinfect its neighbors through interstate commerce, Harrison said. 

Some states are banding together to ensure that doesn't happen. Earlier this month, California, Oregon, and Washington announced a joint plan for reopening their economies according to certain principles, according to the office of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. States in the northeast and in the midwest have similar agreements.

The states will work together to share best practices for testing, tracking, and isolating people with the virus.

"We were just trying to highlight that that's a potential risk," Harrison said. "Because the dynamics of the outbreak curves are such that different states are peaking at different time points." 

Testing is clearly not at the level it needs to be right now

Morgan Stanley's research last week suggested that the US could start testing 1 million people per day by the end of May. 

Manufacturers are saying they're on schedule to meet the demand, but issues with the supply chain are still in the way, according to Harrison. 

Most of the companies that make nasal swabs and reagents for the diagnostics are private, so there's not much visibility, he said. 

"Testing is clearly not at the level it needs to be right now," Harrison said in the interview. Morgan Stanley is keeping an eye out for government intervention that might solve some of these problems. 

Antibody testing by itself doesn't change how people go back to work

"I view surveillance through contact tracing and RNA testing as the key factor to pay attention to," Harrison said. 

Tests used to diagnose the coronavirus in real time look for the virus' genetic material, called RNA, on nasal swabs. Antibody or serology tests look for antibodies produced to fight off the virus, which can last for a long time after the infection is over, in blood samples.

Tests for the virus itself can tell health authorities how many people have the coronavirus.

But deployed at scale, the antibody tests can provide a better picture of the scope of the outbreak, by showing what percentage of people have ever been exposed to the virus. 

"I think serology in and of itself doesn't change how you bring people back to work. It's useful towards trying to understand the scope of the prior outbreak and how new outbreaks may unfold," he said.

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