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The Latest: Cycle of 50 days of shutdown followed by 30 days relaxation is best way to tackle pandemic, study finds - Press Herald

The latest on the coronavirus pandemic.

As countries start to reopen their economies, public-health experts are putting the situation in context by warning that more waves of the coronavirus are likely.

A European Union-backed study released Wednesday outlines what a response to that reality could look like: Fifty days of shutdown followed by 30 days of relative relaxation. Repeat until pandemic-free.

A customer sits with his laptop beside display mannequins at a cafe in Essen, Germany on Wednesday. The cafe set the mannequins as placeholders to create more distance between customers. Associated Press/Martin Meissner

In the study published in the European Journal of Epidemiology, researchers from nine countries examined various models for how to ensure a degree of economic activity and limit the spread of the novel coronavirus. They then simulated three options in 16 countries: no intervention, cycles of mitigation followed by easing of restrictions and “cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period.”

They found that the second, middle-ground option was ineffective in reducing intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations to a manageable rate.

“By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities,” the researchers wrote in the abstract. “Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. … Such a “schedule” of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable.”

The study’s findings offer a path forward that clashes with the warlike rhetoric of many political leaders eager to restart economies.

On Wednesday, however, the director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control warned that Europe needs to prepare for the next wave.

“The question is when and how big, that is the question in my view,” Andrea Ammon told the Guardian.

“Looking at the characteristics of the virus, looking at what now emerges from the different countries in terms of population immunity — which isn’t all that exciting between 2 percent and 14 percent, that leaves still 85 percent to 90 percent of the population susceptible. … I don’t want to draw a doomsday picture but I think we have to be realistic. That it’s not the time now to completely relax.”
10 days after lockdown ends, France sees no increase in coronavirus cases

PARIS — French authorities say they observe no signs of increase in the numbers of people infected with the coronavirus 10 days after the country ended its lockdown.

French Health minister Olivier Veran says the number of COVID-19 patients arriving each day at hospitals is decreasing, along with people treated in intensive care units.

He cautioned “this doesn’t mean the virus isn’t there” as the country gradually lifts restrictions. New clusters of COVID-19 cases have been recently discovered among slaughterhouse workers in western France and police officers in northern France.

Veran also promised that health workers in hospitals and nursing homes will see their salary increase as part of a new government plan for the public health system.

France has reported at least 143,400 cases of the virus and more than 28,000 deaths.

Trump gets blowback for calling world-leading number of cases ‘a badge of honor’

President Trump’s contention that the United States leading the world in confirmed coronavirus cases is “a badge of honor” drew condemnation and ridicule, with critics from both parties dismissing his claim that the still-increasing figure is a reflection of the nation’s testing capacity.

Trump made his assertion Tuesday in response to a question from a reporter at a White House event, saying that he sees the more than 1.5 million confirmed cases in the United States “in a certain respect as being a good thing because it means our testing is much better.”

President Donald Trump met with Senate Republicans at their weekly luncheon on Tuesday. Standing behind Trump is Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo. Associated Press/Patrick Semansky

“So, I view it as a badge of honor. Really, it’s a badge of honor,” he said.

The United States has more than 30 percent of the world’s known coronavirus infections but accounts for less than 5 percent of the global population.

Harvard law professor Laurence H. Tribe was among the Trump critics who pounded on the president’s assertions, calling him “a ghoul and an idiot.”

“This is like calling a trail of corpses a badge of honor for the police department that let the serial murderer run free for months before shutting him down,” Tribe said on Twitter.

The president’s comments were widely highlighted on social media, including by former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. “Folks, I have no head left to shake,” he said in a tweet quoting the Republican president.

Joe Walsh, a former Illinois congressman who aborted a GOP primary challenge to Trump earlier this year, also weighed in, saying the president’s words showed “how ignorant & dishonest Trump is.”

“If the US had the fewest confirmed cases in the world, Trump would say THE EXACT SAME THING,” Walsh tweeted.

A worker in a newly opened Ford plant tested positive for coronavirus, sending thousands home early

Chicago’s Ford assembly plant sent thousands of workers home early on Wednesday only two days after reopening because an employee tested positive for the novel coronavirus, CBS Chicago reported.

The unexpected dismissal came after the automaker reopened Monday. Production was set to resume Tuesday night, CBS Chicago reported.

The company had implemented temperature checks, installed social distancing reminders and redesigned work stations for safety.

A spokesperson for Ford told the station that the company has been cleaning and disinfecting all areas that the ill employee might have touched. Some plant employees told CBS Chicago that they were delighted to be working again, while others expressed concerns about whether their return-to-work decision was a good idea.

Michael Hopper, an employee at the plant, told the station that people are still close to one another in the facility. “I cleaned my own workstation myself,” he told CBS Chicago. “How our jobs are set up, if one person gets in the hole, that would affect the person behind him.”

Indonesia sets new daily virus case record

JAKARTA, Indonesia — Indonesia has recorded its highest single-day rise in COVID-19 cases as the government is preparing a “new normal” by July.

Health ministry official Achmad Yurianto announced Wednesday that confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections spiked by 693, taking the total number of infections nationwide over 19,000, including more than 1,200 deaths and about 4,500 recoveries.

The previous highest daily increase in COVID-19 cases was recorded a week ago with 689 new cases.

President Joko Widodo has said the country must be ready for a “new normal” by July. However, Indonesians are worrying over little commitment from the government and citizens to fight the virus as the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise across many provinces outside the capital, Jakarta.

So far, only four out of 34 provinces and dozens of cities have applied the restrictions — all with a low-level of public compliance and a low testing rate, at 154,000 for a population of about 270 million, compared to other countries.

Many areas in the country’s most populous island of Java have not formally implemented the restrictions, despite the fact that more than 60% of cases and about 80% of total the deaths in the country have been recorded on the island.

Cruise ship finally allowed to dock, crew to disembark

ZAGREB, Croatia — Croatian authorities say a cruise ship with 756 crew members has docked in the country’s Adriatic Sea town of Dubrovnik after weeks of being stranded at sea because of the new coronavirus.

The Carnival Magic cruise ship will remain at Dubrovnik’s port of Gruz Wednesday and Thursday when the crew members will gradually disembark and head to their home countries.

Authorities say they will check the temperature of each crew member coming out of the ship but don’t expect any infections.

The state Croatian television HRT said Wednesday that five Croatian nationals are among the crew in addition to people from Ukraine, Romania, Slovakia and other countries in the region. Authorities say their return will be organized to home countries.

The report says Carnival Magic previously has docked in Gibraltar before arriving to Dubrovnik.

Many cruise ships had outbreaks at sea, with some passengers and crew members dying on board or after disembarking from international trips.

Thai scientists report promising vaccine results

BANGKOK — Thai health officials say scientists in Thailand have had promising results in testing a COVID-19 vaccine candidate on mice, and will begin testing it on monkeys next week.

Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman for Thailand’s Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration, said Wednesday that Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has ordered the development effort be sped up in the hope of the country becoming one of the first with adequate amounts of a vaccine for its people.

The vaccine candidate being tested by Bangkok’s Chualongkorn University and two public sector partners harnesses mRNA, or messenger RNA, technology, which unlike older types of vaccine does not contain any of the virus it seeks to attack. It instead utilizes part of the virus’ genetic code to ultimately produce antibodies inside the human body.

Thailand has several active COVID-19 vaccine development projects, including separate cooperative efforts with China and the United States.

Scores of vaccine development projects are underway around the world, with several already having reached the stage where trials are carried out on human subjects.

Chinese say their handling of the coronavirus showcases the advantages of Chinese socialism

BEIJING — A Chinese spokesperson says the nation’s success in stemming the spread of coronavirus has “showcased the country’s institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics,” while lashing out at U.S. and other foreign politicians who have criticized Beijing.

Guo Weimin told reporters Wednesday that “concerted efforts of the whole country” were responsible for bringing the virus under control.

“Certain politicians from a number of countries including the United States will not succeed in blaming and smearing China over COVID-19 as they did these out of political needs to shift the blame at home,” said Guo, spokesperson for the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body to the country’s ceremonial parliament, which opens its annual session this week after a more than two-month delay while the country battled the virus.

China reported just five new virus cases on Wednesday and no deaths.

The global pandemic is believed to have originated in the central Chinese industrial city of Wuhan, although China insists a definitive conclusion can only be made following a World Health Organization-led investigation to be held after the worldwide outbreak is brought under control.

Cambridge is first British university to say all lectures in the 2020-21 academic year will be virtual

LONDON — Cambridge has become the first university in Britain to cancel all face-to-face lectures for the 2020-21 academic year because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The university says all lectures will be held virtually and streamed online until summer 2021. Cambridge says it may be possible to hold tutorials and other teaching in small groups — a key part of the university’s system — when the new academic year starts in October, as long as social distancing can be followed.

The pandemic has already upended student life. Cambridge moved all its teaching online in March, and exams are being held remotely.

British universities are warning they will face a financial crisis if students decide they don’t want to pay tuition fees — currently 9,250 a year ($11,300) in England — for a virtual experience. Lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed because of the pandemic have also cut off the flow of international students, who pay higher fees and form a major source of income for U.K. universities.


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